According to Banco Central de Venezuela (BCV), consumer Inflation in the Caracas Metropolitan Area, reached 20.4% yoy in February (latest available!!), whilst producer prices increased 18.6%. Moreover, the data suggests that inflation seems to be accelerating in the Bolivarian Republic.
Her Venezuelan-economist friends, a lovely bunch of very funny guys, tell Macarena that very few people are now betting against the odds that we will, again, see their motherland experiencing inflation of 30% or more, come December.
Macarena, a simple country-girl at heart, thinks that inflation might have something to do with money. The data is quiet clear on this issue: the stock of high-powered money doubled between early 2006 and early 2007, from B21.7 billion, to B43.6 billion.
So, the question is: what on earth did the BCV buy with all these freshly minted Bolivares?. Not too surprisingly, the answer is: U.S Dollars. BCV bought foreign currency big-time: B16.3 billion, or about 75% of the initial monetary base.
Other interesting things happened: PDVSA monetized much of its initial deposits in the BCV, adding about one more billion to the bonfire, while the BCV played some interesting games: credit outstanding did decrease, but, alas, net worth was diminished by the exact amount. Lastly, a very interesting “other net accounts” (might that have a thing or two to do with central bank credit?) added about B5 billion to the money supply.
Macarena is anxious to hear the forthcoming Chavonomics on the delicate issue of accelerating inflation. She refuses to accept the idea that all we will see are the traditional price controls, export prohibitions, taxpayer enhanced public utilities and so forth. No sir. Chavismo is much more imaginative than that. How about making barter a cornerstone of the revolution?. There´s a country-girl thought: no money, no inflation!!
The more serious financial crises of the last 10 years have always caught Macarena sunbathing somewhere else. She thinks this is not a concidence, so she made two decisions. Number one: gain some weight, so the mere thought of using her old white bikini would become sufficiently embarassing, regardless of the guy at hand. Number two, force me to post her random thoughts on finance as she delights herself on jamon pata negra and manchego cheese.
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